LAGUNA BEACH Six and a half years after the global financial crisis, central banks in emerging and developed economies alike are continuing to pursue unprecedentedly activist and unpredictable monetary policy. How much road remains in this extraordinary journey?

LAGUNA BEACH The world is increasingly characterized by divergence in economic performance, monetary policy, and thus in financial markets. Global divergence has already contributed to stock market volatility, unprecedented declines in advanced economies' government bond yields, and outsize currency movements.

LAGUNA BEACH Steadily and indisputably, the financial services industry with which we all interact, whether as borrowers, savers, investors, or regulators has embarked on a multiyear transformation. This process, slow at first, has been driven by the combined impact of two sets of durable forces.

LAGUNA BEACH There were quite a few disconnects at the recently concluded Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank. Among the most striking was the disparity between participants interest in discussions of inequality and the ongoing lack of a formal action plan for governments to address it.

LAGUNA BEACH This has been an unusual year for the global economy, characterized by a series of unanticipated economic, geopolitical, and market shifts and the final quarter is likely to be no different. How these shifts ultimately play out will have a major impact on the effectiveness of government policies and much more.

LAGUNA BEACH Like many readers, I still vividly recall when Nokia was the dominant player in mobile phones, with over 40 of the market, and Apple was just a computer company. I remember when Amazon was known only for books, and when dirty taxis or high priced limousines were the only alternative to public transport or my own car.

LAGUNA BEACH In the coming year, divergence will be a major global economic theme, applying to economic trends, policies, and performance. As the year progresses, these divergences will become increasingly difficult to reconcile, leaving policymakers with a choice overcome the obstacles that have so far impeded effective action, or risk allowing their economies to be destabilized.

LAGUNA BEACH Dark clouds are lowering over Europe s economic future, as three distinct tempests gather the Greek crisis, Russia s incursion in Ukraine, and the rise of populist political parties. Though each poses a considerable threat, Europe, aided by the recent cyclical pickup, is in a position to address them individually, without risking more than a temporary set of disruptions.

LAGUNA BEACH Oil prices have been heading south again, with a barrel of US crude recently falling below 42 the lowest level since March 2009, the nadir of the global financial crisis. And, while last year s sharp price drop was heavily influenced by two large supply shocks, the current decline also has an important demand dimension.