It is true that extraordinarily low long term bond yields put us outside the range of historical experience. But so would a scenario in which a sudden bond market crash drags down prices of stocks and housing.

Global stock markets have, overall, reached new highs. And credit markets show low spreads, while long term bond yields have fallen in most advanced economies.

Many homebuilders are near bankrupt, as are some hedge funds and other highly leveraged institutions. Even in the US corporate sector, defaults will rise, owing to sharply higher corporate bond spreads.

13. Currently, the 30 year United States inflation indexed Government Bond yields a quot real quot return to maturity of approximately 3.6 per cent per annum.

With fears mounting that one or another euro zone country may default, yield spreads on government bonds between EMU countries have reached record highs. For some time now, Greek ten year government bond yields have been about 300 basis points above German yields.

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During the two year period, bond yields fell in most major markets and the Fund apos s total bond portfolio had a return of 3.6 per cent for the year ended 31 March 1997 and 7 per cent for the year ended 31 March 1998.

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Bond. James Bond.

Bond? James Bond?

After the government announced its plan, the euro fell to its lowest level in nearly two weeks on Friday, while the Italian bond yields hit their highest level in three weeks.

In short, though central banks creation of macro liquidity may keep bond yields low and reduce volatility, it has also led to crowded trades (herding on market trends, exacerbated by HFTs) and more investment in illiquid bond funds, while tighter regulation means that market makers are missing in action.

But if they maintain large budget deficits and continue to monetize them, at some point after the current deflationary forces become more subdued bond markets will revolt. At this point, inflationary expectations will increase, long term government bond yields will rise, and the recovery will be crowded out.

Thus, the recent problems faced by Greece are only the tip of a sovereign debt iceberg in many advanced economies (and a smaller number of emerging markets). Bond market vigilantes already have taken aim at Greece, Spain, Portugal, the United Kingdom, Ireland, and Iceland, pushing government bond yields higher.

The euro was in serious trouble, buffeted by rumors of imminent banking collapses. Bond yields in southern Europe were rising, and a pervasive sense of apprehension and fear cloaked governments in European capitals.

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James Bond. Oh, yes, Mr Bond.

Likewise, in October 2014, US Treasury yields plummeted by almost 40 basis points in minutes, which statisticians argue should occur only once in three billion years. The latest episode came just last month, when, in the space of a few days, ten year German bond yields went from five basis points to almost 80.

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Bond.

MAN ON MEGAPHONE Ahoy, Mr. Bond. Ahoy, Mr. Bond.

The bond channel doesn t work when bond yields are already low and the credit channel doesn t work when banks hoard liquidity and velocity collapses. Indeed, those who can borrow (high grade firms and prime households) don t want or need to, while those who need to highly leveraged firms and non prime households can t, owing to the credit crunch.

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James Bond.

Mr Bond.

Mr Bond?

James Bond?

James Bond.