There's an inherent problem with low probability events.

The 9.0 magnitude earthquake that struck Japan is, of course, a highly exceptional event an event so rare that its probability cannot be well assessed with models based on limited historic data. Events with very low probability but high impact so called tail risks have also been at the heart of the financial crisis.

Risk assessments include the probability of an event, as well as its subsequent consequences.

(a) Risk of causing significant transboundary harm includes risks taking the form of a high probability of causing significant transboundary harm and a low probability of causing disastrous transboundary harm

(b) those where a relatively low probability exists that pathogens of risk groups 2 or 3 are present.

Although the probability of collision of NEOs with the Earth is very low, they represent a potential threat to the planet.

Probability

The Poisson model is used in cases where there is a large number of independent events and each event has a small probability of occurring.

Consequently, I attach a low probability to the currency union s disintegration. Barring such a worst case outcome for Europe, the odds of a hard landing in either India or China should remain low.

In any event, infrastructure improvements do not seem to go beyond reactive, low level support.

Probability of success

Probability of failure

Probability of outcome

3. It is becoming increasingly clear that there is a very low probability that all potentially affected systems will be identified and converted by the deadline.

Let's think about probability.

Applying basic probability theory, this produces the following mission start up probability matrix Table 1

In fact, as psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky have shown, there is a systematic human tendency to downgrade the perceived probability of low probability events, so that people go about their lives as if the probability of these events occurrence is zero. Similarly, humans tend to accept large downside risks in order to avoid small certain losses, such as insurance premiums.

They're not rational about probability.

It's just elementary probability theory.

Mission start up probability matrix

The law of probability, Kiley?

The programme addresses students of the First and Second Grade of Gymnasio (Secondary School) who are characterized by low school performance and a high probability of dropping out.

The Panel strongly supports the proposal that all debt should be cancelled, in any event for all low income countries.

An investment grade rating reflects the credit rating agencies' belief that the probability of payment of the bond is high and the financial risk associated with the investment is low.

The Subcommittee noted that, although the probability of collisions of near Earth objects with the Earth was very low, near Earth objects nonetheless could pose a threat to the Earth.

What about the probability of being caught?

In all probability he had his reasons.

(a) those known or reasonably expected to contain pathogens in risk groups 2, 3 or 4 and those where a relatively low probability exists that pathogens of risk group 4 are present.

The biggest one is that it was the type of disaster to which policymakers pay too little attention one that has a very low or unknown probability of occurring, but that creates enormous losses if it does occur. Great as the death toll, physical and emotional suffering of survivors, and property damage caused by the tsunami were, even greater losses could be inflicted by other disasters of low (but not negligible), or unknown, probability.

You say, what's the probability of being caught?

Tomorrow there's a high probability it will rain.

Here is a similar unconditional probability distribution for intelligence.

That's a rather trivial connection between probability and genetics.

No, sir. The law of probability is against me.

And that means that if we want to avail ourselves of it, we're allowed to postulate chemical events in the origin of life which have a probability as low as one in 100 billion billion.

Effective measures to mitigate the consequences of break ups caused by collision include the spacecraft design, selection of an orbit where the probability of collision is low, and collision avoidance manoeuvres (see paragraphs 112 118 below).

It will probably increase, and the probability is enormously huge.

Both instruments, in all probability, will continue to be required.

(b) The probability of impact damage to any given subsystem

Do you know what the mathematical probability of that is?

Further applying basic probability theory, this matrix implies that there is a 95 per cent probability of at least one new mission being launched every 13 months.

No such event UID change event failed

No such event UID delete event failed

This suggests that a probability of life appearing is reasonably high.

Because the risk, the high probability of climate change is real.