LONDON Ten years on, the euro is a resounding success. A financial market heavyweight, it now outperforms the dollar, the yen, and, until recently, the mighty Chinese yuan, while euro denominated bond trading rivals the US market in size.

GENEVA Geopolitical insight is often gained through real life experience, rather than big picture thinking. Arriving at Charles de Gaulle airport in Paris from Conakry, Guinea, is a case in point Conakry s airport, located in one of the world s poorest countries, outperforms France s prestigious global hub in terms of cleanliness, service, and pride.

GENEVA Geopolitical insight is often gained through real life 160 experience, rather than big picture thinking. Arriving at Charles de Gaulle airport in Paris from Conakry, Guinea, is a case in point Conakry s airport, located in one of the world s poorest countries, outperforms France s prestigious global hub in terms of cleanliness, service, and pride.

Given this, only a change in fundamentals the US economy outperforms the consensus forecast and the Fed initiates monetary tightening earlier than anticipated, or other economies performance is even worse than expected would cause the dollar to strengthen further. In short, with the market s best guess already incorporated into the exchange rate, the dollar is as likely to fall as it is to rise.