statistical deviations esp. for initially low collision probabilities.

2.1.2 Collision probabilities

2. Minimum new mission probabilities.

But we're just gambling on probabilities.

Now, sometimes those probabilities are near certainties.

But other times they're not, and you have only probabilities for different outcomes.

Possibilities about our ancestry, but not the probabilities that we're really looking for.

But we're going to represent beliefs with probabilities.

quot 35. As for the rest of persons listed, the Commission concluded the following probabilities

Optimize your probabilities to have sex on dating websites

Probabilities must then be assigned to each of these, the balance between cost and benefit estimated for each case and then, finally, all the results be combined with due regard to their relative probabilities.

But the main thing here is that it predicts probabilities.

The collision probabilities among the larger objects are initially low.

I'm going to ask you to consider the probabilities of this case.

Another direction that excites neuroscientists is how the brain deals with ambiguous situations, when probabilities are not known, and when other highly relevant information is not available. It has already been discovered that the brain regions used to deal with problems when probabilities are clear are different from those used when probabilities are unknown.

This technique is being examined, within the United Kingdom verification research programme, for its verification utility, by calculating detection and false alarm probabilities for various situations.

These objects are propagated individually and the resulting collision probabilities are recalculated within discrete time steps.

6. A cost utility analysis may be developed for the Base by looking at various scenarios that will require its support in the near future, assigning probabilities to each of these, estimating the balance between cost and benefit in each case, and combining all the results with due regard to their relative probabilities.

The lottery is an excellent example, of course an excellent test case of people's ability to compute probabilities.

Fourth, countries are poor often because of weak, inefficient, or corrupt government, characteristics that may disable them from taking cost justified precautions. And the difficulty people everywhere have in thinking in terms of probabilities especially low probabilities, which they tend to write off weakens political support for incurring the costs of taking precautionary measures.

This can be achieved by setting the new mission probabilities to 0.12 (12 per cent) for a medium sized mission and 0.28 (28 per cent) for a small mission. Table 4

However, the known and assessed population of debris is growing, and the probabilities of potentially damaging collisions will consequently increase.

So I think those babies are actually making complicated calculations with conditional probabilities that they're revising to figure out how the world works.

In order to determine the minimum new mission probabilities for which the operation of the Base would still break even, it is again necessary to revisit the mission support requirement expectation table, but this time adjusting the assumed new mission probabilities so that feeding the resulting expectation of the new mission support requirement into the cost utility ratio calculation gives a result of exactly 1.

Currently, collisions among larger objects do not play a significant role in the increase of the number of objects, since their probabilities are low.

It is also assumed that the probability of such missions being started is 0.3 (30 per cent) for a medium sized mission and 0.7 (70 per cent) for a small mission, and that these probabilities are independent.

This sensitivity analysis takes the form of determining the lowest values for the estimated equipment requirements for new missions and the lowest probabilities of new missions arising during a year, for which the operation of the Base would still break even.

In other words, the operation of the Base will still break even if the assumed new mission probabilities are reduced to 0.12 (12 per cent) for a medium sized mission and 0.28 (28 per cent) for a small mission.

Risk identification involves not only estimating the probabilities of hazard events of differing severities, but also identifying the factors that make socio economic systems vulnerable to hazards.

The field of paleoanthropology, I'll argue, gives us lots of fascinating possibilities about our ancestry, but it doesn't give us the probabilities that we really want as scientists.

At that stage, the burden was on the accused to show, in the balance of probabilities, that he was not a trafficker in respect of the said drugs.

(2)Where, within the range of variation of the said financial instrument, the various probabilities adopted to determine the estimate of the fair values thereof can be reasonably determined.

Analytical work has been carried out in order to calculate the detection probabilities of various gamma and neutron sensors and to learn how to combine them into distributed networks.

But, whatever the probabilities, the fact remains that there will generally be a high percentage of false positives when screening for rare conditions. Moreover, the patients who receive these faulty diagnoses will usually receive further treatments, which often will have harmful consequences.

The neo classical revolution believed that markets were much more cyclically stable than Keynes believed, that the risks in all market transactions can be known in advance, and that prices will therefore always reflect objective probabilities.

That leads to a second and more plausible explanation, which is psychological and behavioral in character. We have a tendency to underestimate both the probabilities and consequences of what in the investment world are called left tailed events.

They can be traced back to the economist Frank Knight s 1921 book Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit. Knight recognized that a significant distinction should be drawn between outcomes whose probabilities are well characterized ( risks ) and those where this is not possible ( uncertainties ).

One argument is that redundancy looks like waste in normal times, with cost benefit calculations ruling out higher investment. That seems clearly wrong Numerous expert estimates indicate that built in redundancy pays off unless one assigns unrealistically low probabilities to disruptive events.

What this means is simpler than it sounds the rising value of collateral tends to be seen as offering higher repayment probabilities. Moreover, if financial institutions follow their own risk assessments when estimating appropriate capital cushions, the costs associated with such provisions decline.

John Maynard Keynes thought that most economic decision making occurs in ambiguous situations in which probabilities are not known. He concluded that much of our business cycle is driven by fluctuations in animal spirits, something in the mind and not understood by economists.

While financial institutions tried to mitigate risks by bundling subprime mortgages, Fukushima s cooling system was able to cope with either a blackout and an earthquake or a tsunami. But, in both cases, the failure probabilities were correlated, and their joint occurrence led to catastrophe.

There are several reasons for this regulatory failure, including the inability to acquire and process all relevant data, the political difficulty of enforcing strict judgments, and the difficulty of modeling tail risks. Consequently, relying on low failure probabilities, national policies, the caution of private actors, and monitoring by regulators seems to be insufficient to prevent catastrophe.

The Subcommittee noted that a certain amount of research on space debris had already been undertaken in some countries, which had allowed for a better understanding of the sources of debris, the areas in near Earth orbit that were reaching high levels of space debris density, the probabilities and effects of collisions and the necessity of minimizing the creation of space debris.

The second conclusion is that the gross gains fees, trading profits, and capital gains to the winners (perhaps 800 billion from this year s M amp A s) greatly exceed the perhaps 170 billion in net gains. Governments have a very important educational, admonitory, and regulatory role to play people should know the risks and probabilities, for they may wind up among losers of the other 630 billion.

The second conclusion is that the gross gains fees, trading profits, and capital gains to the winners (perhaps 800 billion from this year s M A s) greatly exceed the perhaps 170 billion in net gains. Governments have a very important educational, admonitory, and regulatory role to play people should know the risks and probabilities, for they may wind up among losers of the other 630 billion.