Debt service ratio

Region Debt export ratio

Although Mexico s traditional debt indicators appeared sustainable, with moderate ratios of debt service, debt stock to exports and interest payments to exports (a ratio similar to the debt service ratio), the ratio of short term debt to reserves amounted to 131 per cent in 1997 (the ratio was much higher in 1996).

36. Africa s external debt burden is the highest among developing countries in terms of the ratio of external debt to GDP and its debt service ratio.

The debt indicators show what would be expected to be a sustainable debt position.1 The debt service ratio measured 13 per cent, the debt stock to exports ratio 114 per cent, the debt stock to GNP ratio 31 per cent, and short term debt to foreign exchange reserves ratio 53 per cent as noted, however, those figures obscure diverse trends at the country level.

It narrows government budget deficits by increasing tax revenues and limiting welfare spending. By raising the denominator of the debt GDP ratio, it enhances confidence in debt sustainability.

1 It is generally recognized that a ratio of debt to exports exceeding 200 per cent and a ratio of debt service to exports exceeding 20 per cent would signal serious debt problems.

An additional criterion is a ratio of present value of debt to government revenue of 280 per cent (together with additional conditions related to a ratio of government revenue to gross domestic product (GDP) of 20 per cent and a ratio of exports to GDP of 40 per cent).

This sharp devaluation increased further the cost of debt servicing and the debt to GDP ratio.

In addition, given that local government debt comprises 27 of China s 2010 GDP, while central government debt and policy loans stand at 20 and 6 of GDP, respectively, the total public debt to GDP ratio is approximately 53 lower than Germany s. So, while China should not be complacent about local government debt, panic is unwarranted.

However, because of improved economic performance in the debtor countries, the overall ratio of debt to exports and the ratio of external debt to gross domestic product had declined to their lowest levels since the onset of the debt crisis.

Indeed, the ICBC s non performing loan (NPL) ratio for LFP loans is as low as 0.3 , while the corresponding coverage ratio the bank s ability to absorb losses from NPLs is 1,066 . According to the NAO, the NPL ratio for the RMB10.7 trillion in local government debt is roughly 2.3 .

Latin American debt indicators generally indicated a sustainable debt position for the region as a whole, with a debt service ratio of 12 per cent, debt stock to exports and to GNP ratios of 103 per cent and 43 per cent respectively, and a short term debt to reserves ratio of 71 per cent.

A public debt crisis in Japan (as the combination of recession, deflation, and high deficits drove up the debt GDP ratio).

For Greece, with an overall deficit of 4.1 of GDP and a debt GDP ratio of 170 , the debt ratio would fall if the combination of inflation and real (inflation adjusted) GDP growth exceeded 2.4 . Stated differently, now that Greece has achieved a zero primary budget deficit, its debt burden will decline if its nominal growth rate exceeds the average interest that it pays on its government debt.

The ratio of short term debt to reserves indicated no short term liquidity difficulty.

Three factors had been taken into account debt service to export ratio (in the range of 20 25 per cent), the ratio of the current value of debt to export (200 250 per cent) and vulnerability.

As a group, those countries debt burden remains severe, with a debt stock to export ratio of well over 300 per cent (far above the 200 per cent threshold used to indicate a debt overhang) and a debt stock to GNP ratio of 127 per cent in 1996 after several years of improvement.

The Government of Jordan continued its efforts to restructure the public debt stock, gradually replacing external by domestic sources with the external debt to GDP ratio declining from 76.4 per cent to 69.7 per cent during 2003 2004.

40. In considering this element of the scale, the Committee had before it information obtained from the World Bank on debt stock, principal repayments, the ratio of debt to national income and the ratio of debt service to export earnings for a number of Member States.

Target ranges for sustainable debt levels have initially been defined by the Bretton Woods institutions as 200 to 250 per cent for the debt to exports ratio expressed in present value terms, and as 20 to 25 per cent for the debt service to exports ratio.

For Argentina, the ratio of interest payments to exports was 21 per cent and the ratio of external debt to exports 313 per cent in 1997.

The ECLAC region's debt to export ratio is higher than that of any other developing region.

In 2004 the ratio of debt servicing to exports was 10.0 per cent (see figure below).

By 1995, SSA had the highest debt to exports ratio of any developing region (table 2).

It is estimated that the debt export ratio in net present value terms is high (187 per cent), suggesting that Haiti's debt is unsustainable.

Although the government s stimulus policies have increased the national debt, the debt GDP ratio remains relatively low, at roughly 37 . Public debt in Japan, by contrast, exceeds 220 of GDP.

Even with the latest deal, Greece s debt ratio remains at 120 of last year s GDP. With a projected drop in GDP of 7 this year and a sustained deficit, the debt ratio would exceed 130 before stabilizing at 120 in 2020.

Third, though China s public debt GDP ratio is officially still under 20 , since the onset of the global financial crisis in 2008, its fiscal position has deteriorated. If the government s contingent liabilities are included, China s debt GDP ratio may be closer to 50 .

The Argentine Government estimated that after restructuring, the ratio of debt in foreign currency to exports was reduced from 527 per cent (in December 2001) to 230 per cent, and the ratio of interest payments to fiscal revenue diminished from 22 per cent to 10 per cent.

The ratio of debt to exports was 83.4 per cent, likewise one of the lowest in the region.

In Brazil, the ratio of interest payments to exports was also 21 per cent, and the debt stock as a percentage of exports was 289 per cent in 1997, while the ratio of short term debt to reserves did not signal immediate liquidity problems.

Starting from 1999, the first year of recession, fiscal deficits rose substantially, alongside the public debt to GDP ratio.

The ratio of debt service to exports for these countries has declined to an average of 10 per cent.

Owing to strong GDP growth, the debt to GDP ratio decreased from 100.2 per cent to 95.1 per cent.

Under HIPC, Mozambique s debt stock to export ratio is expected to be reduced from 466 to 200 per cent.

Debt sustainability needs to be redefined to enable the least developed countries to achieve the goals contained in the Brussels Programme of Action without an increase in debt ratio.

To do the same thing with bank debt could pull hitherto sound economies into the abyss, because bank s balance sheets are much larger than the volume of government debt. In Spain, the public debt to GDP ratio is 69 , but the debt of the Spanish banking system totals 305 of GDP, or about 3.3 trillion about as much as the combined public debt of all five crisis stricken eurozone countries.

In the latter, the ratio of external debt to GNP was more than twice that of other developing regions in sub Saharan Africa, the ratio was nearly double that for Africa as a whole.

In particular, they should have paid greater attention to the sustainability of US mortgage and consumer debt. In 2007, the mortgage and consumer debt to GDP ratio was more than 90 , compared to 24 for net foreign debt.

The personal debt to income ratio basically went from 65 percent to 135 percent in the span of about 15 years.

It is calculated to receive debt relief equivalent to about 345 million (in net present value terms) which is projected to reduce its debt to export ratio to 202 per cent.

In 1996, when Japan s public debt GDP ratio reached 80 , many Japanese economists and officials worried about a looming crisis. Almost two decades later, the ratio has surpassed 200 and still no crisis has erupted.

In fact, China s high debt GDP ratio is, to a large extent, a result of its simultaneously high saving and investment rates. And, while the inability to repay loans can contribute to a high debt burden, the nonperforming loan (NPL) ratio for China s major banks stands at less than 1 .

Indeed, according to the OECD, by the end of this year, America s national debt GDP ratio will climb to 108.6 . Public debt in the eurozone stands at 99.1 of GDP, led by France, where the ratio is expected to reach 105.5 , and the United Kingdom, where it will reach 104.2 .