The Year of Rational Pessimism

So there's lots of reason for pessimism.

It's more than enough reason for pessimism.

In difficult times, pessimism is a self fulfilling, self inflicted death sentence.

And today we have a kind of evangelical pessimism all around us.

As Norwegian social scientist Evelin Lindner has observed, Pessimism is a luxury of good times ...

Optimism is like the lamp of hope. Pessimism or negativity is like a drug of sorrow.

We must mobilize the political will to change negative trends, in order to prevent polarization and pessimism.

Nevertheless, we must not yield to resignation or pessimism on the contrary, let us continue to hope.

That not only delays development, but casts a shroud of pessimism over the very achievement of the Millennium Goals.

But in France, the majority says no. This deep pessimism militates against any public debate or reform, and exaggerates the importance of the current political crisis.

Do the defects of democracy really mean, as Tocqueville claimed, that resigned pessimism is the only realistic but unsustainable path open to us? I don t think so.

So pessimism appears to be settling in, and the deadlock over Yasukuni appears to be deepening. But the past can bring us more than just troubles of this kind.

And the trends for those who are at the periphery of our society, who are the poorest and the most vulnerable, the trends give rise to a great case for pessimism.

Secular stagnation and underconsumptionism are terms that betray an underlying pessimism, which, by discouraging spending, not only reinforces a weak economy, but also generates anger, intolerance, and a potential for violence.

Even if Gordon s pessimism is excessive, the timing of the next breakthrough in technology is impossible to predict. So called structural reforms may help, but the likely gains are small and uncertain.

FLORENCE At the recent annual meetings of the American Economic Association, there was widespread pessimism about the future of the United States. The age of American predominance is over, declared one economist.

Kicillof s second point was that Argentina s businesses and consumers should not succumb to pessimism. Alluding to Keynes s theories about self fulfilling expectations, he warned that, if people expect things to go wrong, they will.

Often the choice depends less on a rational assessment of similarities and differences than on gut feelings, proclivities to optimism or pessimism, or political orientation. Currently, two dates are circulating widely, 1907 and 1931.

One could easily conclude that the world is being sucked into a vortex of instability. But the past month featured some hopeful moments, and pausing to study them is imperative to avoid succumbing to pessimism.

Just as last year when there was unwarranted growth pessimism in Europe, this year there is unwarranted growth euphoria. Many Germans, in particular, are in denial that the cyclical upturn may be coming to an end.

In some quarters, pessimism, sad to say, dominated the recent celebrations marking the European Union s 50th birthday. Unease about the EU s future is, of course, understandable, especially given the uncertainty surrounding efforts to revive the Constitutional Treaty.

It is far too late for one of their favorite remedies abolition of central banks, supposedly the source of excessive credit creation. Even an economy without central banks will be subject to errors of optimism and pessimism.

While it is important not to overreact to quarterly figures, recent data, as well as some of the revised data for the first quarter, are deeply disappointing. The pessimism of two years ago has returned with good reason.

Few international questions involve higher stakes than these. An immediate concern, if deep pessimism about Iran s intentions prevails, is a preventive Israeli strike, leading to another major Middle East war with catastrophic consequences for the global economy likely.

To many, war between the two superpowers seemed inevitable. The Cuban missile crisis in October 1962 created a global air of fear and pessimism, and certainly the belief that the US and the Soviet Union could not be reconciled.

BERLIN For most Europeans, the Mediterranean is an annual object of longing the holiday idyll where they spend the best weeks of the year. But many Europeans sunny view of the region has yielded to lowering clouds of pessimism.

Rapid progress in the emerging economies has contributed to economic pessimism in Europe and North America. After all, the developing economies combined GDP now exceeds that of the advanced economies a situation that would have been unimaginable a generation ago.

One puzzling and often overlooked feature of the France that elected Nicolas Sarkozy as its new president, and that is now poised to give his political allies a powerful parliamentary mandate, is its mix of private optimism and public pessimism.

The resulting recession might fuel further pessimism and cutbacks in spending, deepening the downturn. A US in recession would no longer serve as the world s importer of last resort, which might send the rest of the world into recession as well.

Analysts might be looking first at their local circumstances, and then extrapolating from that to their assessments of global institutions. Pessimism about slow national recoveries in the developed world is causing analysts to conflate poor domestic and regional governance with poor global governance.

We asked respondents to indicate how much control they had over their lives and how optimistic they were about the future, using a scale on which ten indicated a highly optimistic sense of control and one a deep level of powerlessness and pessimism.

Europe is for Turkey a principle of moderation and an enticement to remain democratic. Turkey is for Europe, beyond its demography, a principle of energy and a cure for pessimism even if, as Erdoğan is showing, self confidence can easily turn into hubris.

As a born in the mid 1960s Gen X er, hurtling all too quickly to my fortieth birthday, I'm naturally inclined to pessimism. But working at Worldchanging has convinced me, much to my own surprise, that successful responses to the world's problems are nonetheless possible.

But it has nothing to do with pessimism. The challenge of governing global risks is nothing less than the challenge of preventing the end of history not as the placid apotheosis of liberal democracy s global victory, but as the worst collective failure we can imagine.

They could oppose their positive energy with the pessimism dominating European minds. They were only too willing to advise Europe to work harder and spend less, as legitimate pride mingled with an understandable desire to settle historical scores and attenuate their legacies of colonial submission and humiliation.

The new pessimism comes not from Marxists, who have always looked for telltale signs of capitalism s collapse, but from the heart of the policymaking establishment Larry Summers, former US President Bill Clinton s Secretary of the Treasury, and chief economist of almost everything at one time or another.

Public pessimism in southern Europe is largely attributable to the absence of such a reward. As declining consumer confidence and household purchasing power deepen the recession, projections of when the crisis will end are repeatedly pushed back, and those bearing the brunt of austerity are losing hope.

But pessimism about the potential of human genome research to yield medical breakthroughs has arisen from unrealistic expectations. Indeed, while silver bullets that can cure our most feared diseases have not been found, progress in the area of gene drug interactions, known as pharmacogenomics, has been extraordinary.

Those who had supported the struggle of the people of Vieques and sought Puerto Rico's independence and self determination were concerned at the current political pessimism and opportunism in Puerto Rico and the wave of calls favourable to the colonial administration's design to preserve the status quo.

The majority of citizens have experienced a decline in living standards in the last year, and there remains a perception that people have more opportunities outside their own countries. Pessimism about employment is alarmingly high among young people, while corruption and government mismanagement are regarded as being widespread.

LONDON The developed world is slowly emerging from the Great Recession, but a question lingers How fast and how far will the recovery go? One big source of pessimism has been the idea that we are running out of investment opportunities and have been since before the 2008 crash.

BEIJING The market is always in search of a story, and investors, it seems, think they have found a new one this year in China. The country s growth slowdown and mounting financial risks have spurred a growing wave of pessimism, with economists worldwide warning of an impending crash.

NEW DELHI German Chancellor Angela Merkel s second visit to China in a year comes against the backdrop of dire forecasts of a difficult September for the eurozone. Mindful of such concerns and persistent pessimism in global financial markets, Merkel is now taking bold political initiatives at home and overseas.

Terrorism in London and the French and Dutch rejections of the European Union s Constitutional Treaty have brought Euro pessimism back into fashion. The failure of the June EU summit and the bitter clashes between Tony Blair and Jacques Chirac have even inspired some to proclaim the beginning of the end for Europe.