In other words, private markets need to be convinced both that there is a low probability of default (hence the importance of credible plans), and that there is some additional loss bearing capacity in the new funding, so that, if there is a default, outstanding or rolled over private debt does not have to bear the full brunt.

Those ratios for Greece are far worse 12.9 , 120 and 10 . So it will take a Herculean effort, luck, and support from the European Union and the IMF to reduce the probability of an eventual default and exit from the eurozone.

Indeed, because standard measures of the probability of default fall when the economy is doing well and rise when it is not, capital requirements based on these measures tend to be pro cyclical. But this increases systemic risk, rather than reducing it.

The key to mortgage regulation is the concept of risk weight, a measure that increases with the probability that a borrower will default. For example, a loan to AAA rated Microsoft has a 0 risk weight, meaning that it is virtually risk free.

Let's think about probability.

What about the probability of being caught?

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It's just elementary probability theory.

They're not rational about probability.

You say, what's the probability of being caught?

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(a) Risk of causing significant transboundary harm includes risks taking the form of a high probability of causing significant transboundary harm and a low probability of causing disastrous transboundary harm

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CPD of the grades A, B, and C. So, here is the conditional probability distribution that we've already seen before for the probability of grade given intelligence and difficulty.

This suggests that a probability of life appearing is reasonably high.

Because the risk, the high probability of climate change is real.

There's an inherent problem with low probability events.

Tomorrow there's a high probability it will rain.

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It seemed too good to be true and it was. Worse, banks failed to understand the first principle of risk management diversification only works when risks are not correlated, and macro shocks (such as those that affect housing prices or borrowers ability to repay) affect the probability of default for all mortgages.

I like to think of what I do as a probability wave.

So it wasn't so much about the probability of being caught again.

I mean, probability and statistics, it's the mathematics of games and gambling.

We have two pieces of observational evidence on the probability of life appearing.

Here is a similar unconditional probability distribution for intelligence.

That's a rather trivial connection between probability and genetics.

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