Is China s Economy Overheating?

We blast the air conditioning the entire way, and we never experience overheating.

And you might remember, some of you, how the cars were back then, and it was a common problem of overheating.

Policymakers in many emerging market countries worry that surging capital inflows will drive up the value of the local currency, destabilize financial markets, and fuel economic overheating. Their reactions range from buying up the foreign money to prevent currency appreciation to adopting capital controls, and, in extreme cases, to keeping the money out altogether.

For example, if evidence of future economic strength makes a government worry about economic overheating and inflation, it might try to cool domestic demand by raising taxes and lowering government spending. If the government is only partly successful in preventing economic overheating, it might nonetheless appear to casual observers that austerity actually strengthened the economy.

Unemployment is down to 5 , with no signs of overheating. The employment cost index suggests that wage increases so far have been surprisingly low.

When, in late 2009, the investment intensive economy began to show signs of overheating, the government imposed strict macroeconomic controls, forcing investors to halt ongoing projects. Growth fell immediately.

Without that exchange rate adjustment, faster export growth would expose the Chinese economy to the risk of overheating. But, with the adjustment, Chinese consumers will spend more on imports and less on domestic goods.

I'm now supporting Stewart's position, softly, from a risk management standpoint, agreeing that the risks of overheating the planet outweigh the risk of nuclear incident, which certainly is possible and is a very real problem.

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Since 2004, China s government has sought to cool an overheating economy by bringing the growth rate down from 12 to a more sustainable 8 9 . It even began to tax exports in order to reduce the trade surplus.

The price fall represents a return to more normal conditions after the overheating of the market in 2004, and reflects the fact that demand growth has slowed in most parts of the world while supply has continued to increase.

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Postponing structural reforms eventually constrains any economy s performance, as we saw in Japan in the 1980 s and 1990 s. China has similar problems, with the investment growth nexus threatening macroeconomic stability witness the overheating that occurred in 2003 and 2004.

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Since he became president in 2003, Hu Jintao has repeatedly warned that China s economy is overheating, and his government has recently acted accordingly, raising interest rates last October, imposing a new tax on home sales in June, and revaluing the Yuan in July.

Increased currency flexibility would allow China s central bank to use monetary policy to enhance China s financial and price stability. As Premier Wen Jiabao recently emphasized, China must now undertake comprehensive measures to control mounting inflation, growing asset bubbles, and an overheating economy.

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Moreover, requiring the exhaustion of domestic remedies would prevent the functioning of the urgent appeals avenue, which existed to prevent imminent violations from occurring.

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