To the extent that this is true of other advanced economies, the global economy faces an extended multi year period of low growth, with residual downside risk coming from policy gridlock and mistakes in Europe, the US, and elsewhere. That scenario implies slower growth possibly 1 1.5 percentage points slower in developing countries, including China, again with a preponderance of downside risk.

It's like tapered to the downside.

Private borrowers often have to offer collateral, such as their houses. The collateral limits the lenders downside risk, and the fear of losing the pledged assets encourages borrowers to act prudently.

So, that's the upside. The circular mill is the downside.

Yes, companies have more hedging tools at their disposal. But the ability to manage downside risk comprehensively is still limited by incomplete longer term markets and public private partnerships that cannot be sufficiently leveraged.

Warren Buffet showed another way, in providing equity to Goldman Sachs. By issuing preferred shares with warrants (options), one reduces the public s downside risk and ensures that they participate in some of the upside potential.

The existing business model allows them to take the upside when they win, and hand over the downside to taxpayers when they lose. This encourages excessive risk and threatens repeated cycles of boom bust bailout.

New ways to borrow and to spread risk seemed to have little downside. More competition for investment banking oligarchs from commercial bankers and insurance companies with deep pockets seemed likely to reduce the investment banking industry s unconscionable profits.

Economic globalization, which has potential benefits as well as downside risks, including marginalization

It's the downside correlation of their fortunes that will become more and more possible.

More broadly, we have lost sight of what banking is supposed to do. Banks play an essential role in all modern economies, but that role is not to assume a huge amount of risk, with the downside losses covered by society.

Asians need not be pessimistic the perfect storm of a hard landing in China, a double dip recession in the United States, and a collapse of the eurozone is unlikely. But they cannot rule out the downside risk of a synchronized global downturn.

The third group, led by Europe, will struggle, as continued economic stagnation fuels social and political disenchantment in some countries and complicates regional policy decisions. Anemic growth, deflationary forces, and pockets of excessive indebtedness will hamper investment, tilting the balance of risk to the downside.

And even a tiny probability of catastrophe is unacceptable when the downside could be of global consequence.

He claims that he should be rewarded as a fund manager supervising a multibillion dollar fund in the private sector. But, whereas private sector professionals are fired or have their salaries reduced for poor performance, Yam wanted private sector pay with none of the downside risk.

In the absence of strong policies, it is too easy to think of scary scenarios in which depressed output and troubles in the financial system feed on each other, leading to further large drops in output. It is thus essential for governments to make clear that they will do everything to eliminate this downside risk.

Risk?

Risk?

The job, though, came with one small downside. And that is they intended to publish my email address at the end of every column.

As consumers, firms, and investors become more cautious and risk averse, the equity market rally of the second half of 2012 has crested. And, given the seriousness of the downside risks to growth in advanced and emerging economies alike, the correction could be a bellwether of worse to come for the global economy and financial markets in 2013.

To me, attempting to discern the economic prospects for 2011 is not a particularly interesting question the answer is bleak, with little upside potential and a lot of downside risk. More importantly, how long will it take Europe and America to recover, and can Asia s seemingly export dependent economies continue to grow if their historical markets languish?

The chief will be responsible for risk control of the Fund's investments as a whole in terms of portfolio risk, operational risk and compliance risk, and will plan and perform the oversight of performance measurement, investment risk analysis and operational risk analysis, including risk arising from sub adviser and service provider relationships.

Risk reduction

Risk factors

Risk assessment

Risk factors

Risk reduction.

There's another risk, and they respond less to this existing risk.

The report recognises that Latvia had the biggest successes in elimination of general risk, economic policy risk and banking sector's risk.

But that approach, too, might have a downside. Consider Spain, where too much fiscal decentralization to regional governments contributed significantly to weakening otherwise strong public finances.

They have an increased risk of infection, an increased risk of malignancy.

Nevertheless, an outside observer might have been struck by the weight given to the possibility that the decade long boom might well suffer a real reversal, followed by serious declines. There seems to be a general recognition of substantial downside risk, as the current credit crisis seems to be related to the decline in US home prices that we have already seen.

The build up of public debt in industrial countries (which was rising briskly well before the Great Recession pushed it to near unsustainable levels) reflects this kind of calculus. The public rewards democratic governments for dealing with the downside risk caused by competitive markets whether by spending to create jobs or by rescuing banks that have dodgy securities on their balance sheets.

This is not the only, or even the most important, downside risk facing the global economy. The gravest threat comes from the wave of austerity sweeping the world, as governments, particularly in Europe, confront the large deficits brought on by the Great Recession, and as anxieties about some countries ability to meet their debt payments contributes to financial market instability.

It is therefore in our collective self interest to work with our African friends through NEPAD to balance both the upside and the downside of economic globalization.

(10) risk management.

Assessment of risk

Africa at Risk

Sovereign Environmental Risk

States of Risk

Systems at Risk

Youth at risk

Disaster risk reduction

Underlying Risk Factors

(a) Risk reduction