Growth in per capita GDP

Over the past decade, China has accounted for an average of 1.6 percentage points of world GDP growth per year more than double the combined 0.7 percentage point contribution of the so called advanced economies. Even if its GDP growth slows to 6.8 this year, China would account for slightly more growth than is likely from the advanced world.

Even the reduced global forecast of 3.4 GDP growth for this year is likely to prove excessively optimistic. Before the crisis, world trade grew at 6 8 annually well faster than GDP.

In economic terms, the world is entering an era of diminished expectations. If, as predicted, average annual GDP growth amounts to 3 in the foreseeable future, it will take 25 years for the world economy to double in size ten years longer than it took before the global economic crisis, when average GDP growth stood at 5 .

If the oil price stays at 40 a barrel, expect it to have next to no effect on short term world GDP growth. But if the oil price remains at or near 60 a barrel, expect everyone's forecasts of GDP growth to be reduced by 1 per year.

Owing to strong GDP growth, the debt to GDP ratio decreased from 100.2 per cent to 95.1 per cent.

But the 8 real GDP growth recorded in 2004 might encourage some to expect a surge in economic performance, as has occurred elsewhere in the world.

1 In 2004, Guatemala reverted to real per capita GDP growth.

Decomposition estimates of GDP expenditure growth in 2004 indicate that Egypt, Jordan and Yemen experienced consumption led growth.

The contribution of investment expenditure growth to GDP growth was moderate in the latter, but impressive in Lebanon.

Remotely possible Would require 5 annual growth and redistribution of 0.03 of GDP or growth in excess of 6

High oil prices are set to dampen economic performance in the rest of the world as well, although growth prospects look better than in the US. China s growth continues to astound the world indeed, new GDP data suggest that its economy is 20 larger than previously thought.

Despite nerve wracking ups and downs, the last 50 years delivered an unprecedented global growth dividend. Measured according to GDP (admittedly a flawed metric), the world economy expanded sixfold.

Some will object that there is little point in creating GDP linked bonds in advanced countries, because there is little uncertainty about GDP growth there. However, even in the relative calm of the post war era, long term real GDP growth in advanced countries has been rather variable.

The key to restoring China s GDP growth is, therefore, returning fixed asset investment growth to at least 25 . With a new round of stimulus, China s excess production capacity and underused outlays (for example, built up real estate assets) could be mobilized immediately, restoring 9 annual GDP growth.

That's not U.S. GDP per capita, which will be over a million, but world GDP per capita 200,000.

Europe s extensive regional and global trade networks mean that its internal problems are impeding world trade and, in turn, global economic growth. In 2012, world trade expanded by only 2.5 , while global GDP grew at a disappointing 3.2 rate.

GDP growth in South East Asia in 2004 exceeded expectations and improved on 2003 growth by the wide margin of 1.5 percentage points.

Real GDP growth continued at a modest pace in 2004 in the Pacific island economies.

Moderately possible Will be achieved, given 4 sustained annual growth (2006 2015) with additional social policies costing 0.63 of GDP and redistribution of 0.18 of GDP

GDP per capita, growth of GDP per capita and inward foreign direct investment, landlocked and transit developing countries and developing countries as a whole, 2000 2003

Second, persistent weakness in consumption and GDP growth puts the US economy on a much weaker growth trajectory than that which is built into the government s long term budget estimates. The Congressional Budget Office is assuming 3.4 average growth in real GDP over the 2013 to 2016 period.

Devaluation and debt restructuring worked. In subsequent years, until the global financial crisis erupted in 2008, Argentina s annual GDP growth was 8 or higher, one of the fastest rates in the world.

While the earthquake and tsunami disaster lowered expected growth in 2005 somewhat in Thailand, Indonesia is still expecting GDP growth to increase next year.

In recent years, GDP growth rates within the region have averaged less than 2 per cent.

IMF growth forecasts released during the Davos meeting highlight the extent to which the world has become decoupled GDP growth in the advanced industrial countries is expected to be 1.4 this year, while developing countries continue to grow at a robust 5.5 annual rate.

In April 2010, the International Monetary Fund s World Economic Outlook projected 1.8 annual GDP growth in Germany and the Netherlands in 2013. In October of last year, the IMF lowered its 2013 growth forecast for Germany to 0.9 and to 0.4 for the Netherlands.

But, although developing countries now account for more than half of global GDP growth, advanced countries have yet to admit them to leadership roles that reflect their growing influence in the world economy.

A Post Growth World?

Similarly, GDP growth began to pick up in the spring of 2014, running above the rate of the preceding three years. Partly as a result of income growth, the US budget deficit last year was lower than forecast, at about 2.8 of GDP.

Here the same methodology and main assumptions (e.g., GDP projections) were used as those contained in Traffic fatalities and economic growth, by Kopits and Cropper, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3035, April 2003.

Real GDP and estimates of growth rates in the ESCWA region at constant 2000 prices, 2001 2005

According to the World Bank, developing countries spend an average of 3 4 of GDP on infrastructure every year, compared to an estimated 7 of GDP required to meet existing infrastructure needs for maintaining rapid growth. This translates into an annual gap of at least 300 billion at current prices.

Economic growth rates reveal the same gap. From 1978 to 2003, annual real GDP growth in China averaged 8.1 while growth in Mexico the fastest in Latin America, barely reached 1 a year.

The Economist Intelligence Unit reported that the gross domestic product (GDP) of the British Virgin Islands amounts to 827 million in 2003 with real GDP growth of 3.2 per cent.

But the willingness of China s new leadership to initiate another round of growth securing stimulus depends on what rate of GDP growth Li can tolerate. With China s leaders having offered no indication that they will change current monetary policy, some economists have estimated that Li will not act until GDP growth falls below 7 .

During the period 2000 to 2003, the annual average rate of economic growth, as measured by the growth of gross domestic product (GDP) was 2.1 per cent.

How much faster is an empirical question. According to the Growth Commission led by Nobel laureate Michael Spence, 13 economies took full advantage of their latecomer status after World War II and achieved annual GDP growth rates of 7 or higher at least twice as high as developed countries growth rates for 25 years or longer.

Most important, the projections of exogenous factors such as export and GDP growth rates often remain too optimistic.

But the world order has changed. Emerging markets and developing countries now account for 50 of global GDP and 75 of global growth, and demographics will further accentuate the shift in the center of economic gravity.

China s economy has certainly become more unstable, with major slowdowns in real GDP growth in 2009 and again in 2012. Its imbalances have gotten worse as well, with the investment share of GDP approaching 50 and private consumption falling below 35 of GDP.

In this context, Zhu s reform strategy was aimed primarily at reestablishing a sound fiscal relationship between the central and local governments, rather than at increasing the GDP growth rate. In fact, though Zhu s reforms were piecemeal, they could easily have led to double digit GDP growth.

The reason for the ranking decline is that Brazilian GDP growth is expected to worsen in the medium term.

According to some economic projections, the GDP growth rate should reach 6 per cent in the next five years.

However, between 1996 and 1998 Mozambique's GDP experienced a significant growth, reaching a real annual average of 11 1.